THE NEXT BIG THING

What The Hell Is SteamPunk?

2011-10-18T10:11:00.000+01:00

SteamPunk is the most famous new trend that you’ve never heard of. To those in the know it’s been around for years. For others, it’s “Steam what?”

It’s certainly not new. The first SteamPunk (SP) convention took place in 2006: and the word was actually added to The Oxford English Dictionary last year. But it’s yet to hit the Media or the mainstream. To me it feels like Emo did in the mid-Noughties, just before it broke big: when you could see queues round the block for underground Emo gigs but no-one in the Media was talking about it.

So what the hell is SteamPunk? The term itself comes from science fiction novels. It was allegedly coined by author Kevin Jeter as a way of distinguishing him and fellow Retro-Tech sci-fi writers from future-loving “CyberPunks” like William Gibson. But it’s grown into a whole visual style, and even a philosophy. It’s all about mixing old and new: fusing the usability of modern technology with the design aesthetic and philosophy of the Victorian age. Or as US young fiction author Caitlin Kittredge put it: “It’s sort of Victorian-industrial, but with more whimsy and fewer orphans ...”

In its glibbest sense, it can be seen as a way of giving your personal technology a Goth make-over. Imagine a top of the range computer pimped out to look like an old typewriter, or an iPhone dock that lets you answer your phone using an old brass and wood receiver. But at its deepest, it’s a whole way of looking and living: and a colourful protest against the inexorable advance of technology itself. And it’s a trend that’s sneaking its way into loads of different sectors: from fashion to film, interior design to video games.

The look pre-dated the term. High tech Victoriana can be found in Disney’s ‘50s and ‘60s adaptations of Jules Verne’s Around The World In 80 Days and 20,000 Leagues Under The Sea, the contraptions of Chitty Chitty Bang Bang’s Caractacus Potts, and even in our very own Bagpuss. More recently, maverick creatives like Terry Gilliam, Tim Burton and Alan Moore took up the style and made it their own, in films like Baron Munchausen and Alice In Wonderland, and comics like The League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen. But it’s only now becoming a heavily adopted style – or lifestyle.

Its biggest impact so far has been in product design. It has reignited a love of “old fashioned” materials: brass and copper, wood, glass, mechanical workings, ornate engraving. It has also co-opted the re/upcycling aesthetic in its love of the old, the repaired, the reworked and the imperfect. And it has done so across a range of sectors. The retro-pimped products mentioned above are amongst hundreds of SP products that can now be bought online, from coffee tables to watches (in fact it just might help save the declining watch industry). And SP products are becoming a common sight on craft marketplace Etsy.

The look is also starting to influence street fashion. SteamPunk clothing typically adds the ‘best’ looks of the Victorian era - explorers, soldiers, countesses, lords and prostitutes – to today’s most relevant street styles: Goth, Burlesque, the fetishism of the Suicide Girls, the lace and leather of pirates, and the frills and capes of vampires. A few SP elements have already been seen in Top Shop, from spiked clothes to jewellery. The trend may even have influenced this season’s High Fashion trends for Fetish, Glamour and Dressing Up.

Meanwhile, TV series like the BBC’s latest Sherlock Holmes adaptation and US thriller Warehouse 13 owe a debt to SteamPunk style in their mixing of the 19th and 21st Centuries, as do the later Harry Potter films. There are SP video games, like the highly acclaimed Bioshock, featuring an undersea world of diving bells and crinolined orphan girls. As SP has grown, so too has the service industry around it. So you can now have SP weddings, with mechanical cakes. The trend has even given rise to its own vocabulary in which, for instance, people don’t arrive, they “dock” (as in from an airship). There are a growing number of underground SP club nights too, from the pioneering White Mischief to Club Antichrist in London’s (very SP-appropriate) Whitechapel districts. There are even SP bands, from Abney Park in the US to The Fearless Vampire Killers in the UK. Although not sharing a musical sound yet, such bands feature the style in their artwork, clothes, videos and lyrics. Even established bands like Panic At The Disco and rock godfathers Rush are including SP elements in their videos and tours.

The SP trend is one of a bunch of new trends linked to the Victorian age. There’s a growing youth interest in Victorian spiritualism and the occult. Hasbro has just launched a glow-in-the-dark Ouija Board. Interiors shops are selling specimen cases, bell jars and taxidermy. There are increasing references to magic (perhaps spurred on by Steve Jobs’ use of the term?) Books set in the Victorian era, such as The Crimson Petal And The White, are proving popular too. Tate Liverpool’s Alice In Wonderland exhibition later this year is part of a trend for Victorian books and illustrations. And two big new films are set back then: The Raven, a thriller about horror writer Edgar Allen Poe, and this year’s Christmas blockbuster Sherlock Holmes 2: A Game Of Shadows, with Robert Downey Jr and Jude Law.

It might seem counter-intuitive that the Victorian era should appeal to young people who’ve grown up in a world of high tech gadgets. But actually, being raised in an era of new freedoms, where boundaries are constantly blurring, and by parents determined not to impose “stuffy rules” or prejudices on their offspring, can be a disorientating experience. Many Millennials are therefore drawn to eras and trends with rules and boundaries: hence the appeal of the more defined, black and white attitudes of the Victorian age. The age also seems particularly exciting and mysterious, with its glamorous clothes and uniforms, intrepid explorers, dastardly villains and dusty labs: especially for a younger generation whose interests are increasingly retro. There is even a present day environmentalist element to it all: a harking back to a time before smog and global warming, when the worst emission was the steam from steam trains.

SteamPunk’s Retro-Tech style isn’t completely limited to Victoriana though. Styles can be taken from anywhere in the giant dressing-up box of the 19th and early 20th centuries, the broadness of which is part of the trend’s appeal. One of the most popular looks is the Edwardian era, where clothes are very Downton Abbey, and spies, airships and flying goggles are all the rage. Still others look forward not back - or perhaps, dare I say, back to the future (Back To The Future’s Doc Brown is another SP touchstone) - because the trend also takes inspiration from those dystopian sci-fi films that show Post-Apocalyptic societies having to make do with broken or retro-fitted technology: from Blade Runner and The Matrix to Tank Girl and Mad Max.

Whatever the era they prefer, SteamPunks share common interests: they all relish retro-looking technology, making things for themselves, and the romanticism and stability of the long ago. And they’re going to be the next big youth and style trend – with any luck. So do you feel lucky, SteamPunks?

(The above article was first published in The Huffington Post 04.10.11 as one of William Higham's columns)

The Death Of The Bookshelf

2011-10-04T09:53:00.000+01:00

It's not often that the re-designing of a shelf signals a major new trend: but Ikea's rather unimposing new-look 'Billy' shelves is an unlikely exception. These shelves - previously created to hold books, CDs or DVDs - are being re-designed to hold ornaments and mementoes. Seems mundane? Actually it signals one of the biggest shifts in consumer attitudes in thirty years...

Back in the mid to late '80s, status was key - and simple to define. It was all about show and display. The designer labels you wore defined how important you were. And the music, films and books on your shelves defined how 'cool'. This has to a great extent held true since. But there have been signs of a shift in recent years. The first step was the move from Conspicuous Consumption to Stealth Wealth. Instead of impressing your friends and colleagues with your jewellery or sports car, you now did so with products that had more emotional residence or functionality, such as designer kitchens or baby buggies.

What's happening now is an even bigger step. We are seeing the beginnings of a new social trend I've christened People Not Products. We're starting to care less about owning products than we did, as we begin to value other, 'human' things more. A combination of life-threatening events (from terrorist attacks to global warming) and the economic downturn means many people have been re-assessing what really matters to them. Of course we've not completely given up our love of things. After over fifty years of mass consumerism, it's going to take a lot to completely remove all traces of the shopping bug. But when you are confronted by the possible loss of your loved ones or your job, then your friends and family start seeming much more important - and the handbag or DVD box set you bought last week increasingly less so. And as they do, so we will buy fewer and fewer of them - and fill less of our shelf space with them.

The People Not Products trend is not the only driver of Shelf Death. Another key factor is the growth of digitisation and the falling demand it has created for book, CD and DVD storage. When a subscription to BSkyB or Spotify gives you immediate access to thousands of films or albums, there is less and less point in owning a few dozen - or even a few hundred. I am a case in point. I love music, films and writing. And I love the products attached to them. But even I have started to change. I've put all my CDs into storage, sold the majority of my DVDs and given most of my books to Oxfam. Almost all my recent audio or video purchases have been downloads. In fact, since downloading the Kindle app to my iPad, I haven't set foot in a bookshop - though I've bought dozens of new books digitally. My shelves aren't barren yet: I'm keeping beautifully designed box sets and precious first editions, plus a few DVDs I haven't the heart to let go (I'll probably go to my grave with copies of 'Annie Hall' and 'Blade Runner' clutched to my chest). But, like an increasing number of Britons, the switch to digital means my home's no longer looking like a branch of HMV.

So if we're going to be getting rid of CDs, DVDs and books, what will we put in their place? The answer lies in the People Not Products trend again. And it's what makes Ikea's Billy shelf so important. As we gently lose our desire to display our purchases, our desire to connect with other people is growing. We're spending more time communicating with others than ever before. We're increasingly appreciating unique experiences, from holidays to concerts. And we are more and more interested in the human story behind those products we do buy. The more we value these human interactions, the more we will fill our shelves with evidence of them. When choosing what to display, we'll be driven less by status than by memories, heritage and emotional value. Instead of the latest or 'coolest' books and CDs, don't be surprised to see your friends' shelves increasingly weighed down by, say, some driftwood they found on a holiday in Thailand, crayon drawings made by friends' or family members' children, or vases made by an 80 year old local potter.

From a human point of view, this is a step forward - or perhaps more accurately a positive step backwards. For business, however, it presents a threat. Especially for those businesses that relied on the purchase of mass-market products for their profits. The trick for companies will be to find a way to monetise this trend. This will mean focusing more on heritage than price, more on human interaction than individual consumption and more on uniqueness than status.

(The above article was first published in The Huffington Post 04.10.11 as one of William Higham's columns)

Differing consumer & business attitudes towards Social Media

2011-09-15T11:22:00.000+01:00

I recently completed two surveys with online research specialists OnePoll that studied current consumer and business attitudes towards Social Media.

We asked 2,000 people who regularly use some form of social media and 500 senior and middle management what their attitudes are towards social media. The polls were conducted as self-completion online surveys.

The results make interesting reading. There is a clear disconnect between consumer and business attitudes. Consumer attitudes towards brands are directly influenced by both positive and negative comments on social media. But businesses typically undervalue social media: in fact business people are much more likely to use social media for personal than business purposes.

Findings - Consumer

If people saw a complaint about a product on a social media site, 87% say it would have a negative impact on their feelings towards that brand:
· it would put 31% of them off the product
· it would make a further 56% concerned about the product

If people saw praise for a product on a social networking site, 83% say it would have a positive impact on their feelings towards that brand:
· it would make 26% of them more likely to buy or use the product
· it would make a further 57% investigate the product

35% of people have posted a negative comment about a product or company on a social media site55% of people woulddo so if they had a bad experience with a product or company

31% of people have posted a positive comment about a product or company on a social media site49% people woulddo so if they had a bad experience with a product or company

Three quarters of people (73%) say they’d complain if they felt wronged by a company
· Three quarters (74%) of them people would make their complaint via email
· 23% would do so in person
· 41% who’d do so by phone
· 42% would do so by letter

35% would post their negative comment automatically if they had a problem, 33% would do so if they tried to complain to the company direct but received no reply and 20% if they couldn’t find a way to complain to the company directly

Almost two thirds (63%) would make that comment the same day they had the experience

Of those that have posted a complaint on social media, 86% did so on Facebook and 25% on Twitter

29% would consider getting a social media account especially to complain if they did not have one already – but just 15% would get one specially to praise a company

Almost a third (30%) think they spend more time complaining about products than praising them – but just 19% think they spend more time praising – and 51% spend about the same time on each

Findings - Business

Less than half of senior / middle management think social media is important for business (47%)

11% think it is a waste of time for business, 22% don’t think it’s a useful business tool – and 22% don’t have an opinion on it.

Many more of them use social media for personal use than business use (eg 65% use Facebook for social, but just 39% for work; 29% Linked In personally vs 20% for business; and 30% Twitter personally vs 23% for business)

38% of senior / middle management admit that their company uses social media enough

The reasons they don’t use it enough are: other things take priority (42%); senior management don’t consider it a priority (27%); the company doesn’t have the time (25%); don’t have the expertise (23%); and 21% just haven’t got around to it. And it’s not about the money: just 4% say they haven’t done it because it would be too expensive.

Flip Flop Generations Old Is the New Young

2011-09-09T17:40:00.000+01:00

PUBLISHED IN 'ADWEEK' 2010

"Planners, account directors and researchers are typically busy people. Under a barrage of internal and client demands, it's hard for us not to fall into shorthand approaches sometimes. For instance, when targeting different age groups. But it's time for a wake-up call. Standard age-related targeting can't be relied on any more, thanks to a new social trend: flip-flop generations. Many adolescents today are acting in ways we might expect middle-age Americans to do, while older consumers are maintaining their "adolescent" interests, outlooks and behaviors into middle age.

"Adolescence is traditionally viewed as a time of hedonism, risk taking, iconoclasm and a refusal to "settle down." But the times they are a changing -- and not the way Dylan described.

"For today's teenagers, it's less about breaking down barriers than retreating behind them. Anxiety levels are rising among the young, thanks perhaps to a mix of political events and "paranoid parenting." Recent surveys suggest as many as one in five teens now suffers from clinical depression. A typical teenager today exhibits more anxiety than child psychiatric patients did in the 1950s, according to the American Psychological Association. This is driving a trend for more conservative behaviors.

"Although there are many teenagers today who are hedonistic and liberal, I'm seeing a growing trend away from these traits. According to government figures, recent youth rates for illicit drugs have "declined significantly," falling 25 percent in the last six years. Drinking and smoking rates are also down. Today's conserva-teens are also more concerned about their financial future -- an attitude accelerated by recent economic events. In a recent BBDO survey, U.S. teens chose financial security as their No. 1 life goal.

"Teenagers are also proving more cautious in their purchase patterns. They are no longer the unanimously excitable "early adopters" of youth marketing studies. In a global Microsoft survey last year called "Young Adults Revealed," just 10 percent of teens said they "like to be ahead of everybody else and try to buy the latest technology as soon as it becomes available," whereas 40 percent "like to wait and see what other people make of new technology before I buy it." As for their values, there is a growing emphasis on morality and family. Three-quarters of those in the Microsoft survey identified family as the most important thing in their lives -- a far cry from the generation gap of the 1960s and '70s. In the BBDO poll more than half list "living by high moral standards" as their top life expectation, almost half believe it best to remain a virgin as long as possible, and 83 percent expect to get married.

"Meanwhile, at the other end of the age divide, something very different is occurring. Middle and old age are traditionally seen as times of conformity, responsibility, risk aversion and settling down. Yet instead of retiring with pipe and slippers to listen to the classics, many of the new old are still pursuing the sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll lifestyle of their youth. The National Council on Aging claims 61 percent of all 60-somethings today are still sexually active. And singles 55 and older are the fastest growing group of online daters. Meanwhile, the rate of 50-somethings' illicit drug use rose more than 70 percent during 2002-08; marijuana is now more prevalent with them than with any other age group. Four million Americans age 50 or older are estimated to have used at least one drug illicitly in the past year, according to the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration's "National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2009."

"What about rock 'n' roll? Two-thirds of over 50s listen to rock more than any other genre, according to the Pew Research Center. And Recording Industry Association of America data show that over 40s are the only age group whose music purchasing has risen in the last decade. The new old are pursuing other adolescent activities, too. A quarter of Americans over 50 play video games -- up almost threefold since 1999 -- and the average "frequent game purchaser" is 39-years-old, according to the Entertainment Software Association. The average motorcyclist is 47-years-old, according to J.D. Power and Associates, and other Pew Research Center data show that three-quarters of baby boomers own cellphones and nearly a third have created a social networking profile.

"With such attitudinal and behavioral shifts, it's time to reassess age-related segmentation. Products and services we assumed teens would never want may now appeal to them, like insurance and pensions. But those we once happily sold them may now have to be rebranded for older markets, from street fashion and alcopops to personal technology. The standard "edgy" teen-focused ad -- appealing to rebellious, hedonistic or iconoclastic values -- may not work with the new teen, whereas ads that appeal to traditional values might. Those edgy ads might now be better aimed at the boomers, perhaps fronted by Aerosmith's Steven Tyler or Blondie's Debbie Harry.

"Obviously not every teenager or boomer conforms to these new typologies. But statistics suggest more and more do. It's time to start targeting the conserva-teen and the new old. I'm already talking to my clients about making radical changes to the way they target older and younger customers. That is, while I'm not indulging my aging sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll lifestyle."

This articler was written by William Higham, who runs future trends and consumer research consultancy The Next Big Thing. He is the author of The Next Big Thing: Spotting & Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit. He can be reached at william@next-big-thing.net.

[This article was published in AdWeek on 17th March 2010]

Regaining Control - Building consumer confidence by allowing them to make more decisions

2011-09-05T15:37:00.000+01:00

PUBLISHED IN 'DELUXE KNOWLEDGE QUARTERLY' IN 2010

For many banking consumers, the recession has revealed shortcomings in self-control.You must help them develop that sense of control once again.

I spent much of 2009 talking to consumers in various marketsabout the effects of the economic downturn. Much of what Iheard surprised me. Far from seeing the downturn as a purelynegative experience, many consumers saw it as a positiveopportunity to reassert control over their lives.

Consumer confidence has fallen across a range of institutions.Today, only half of all U.S. adults trust the companies they dobusiness with. New studies suggest they may be losing faith inthe future as well, including any institution’s ability to accuratelypredict or safeguard it. Consumers see many problems they faceas beyond their control, from the economy and global warmingto terrorism.To limit the influence of politicians, brands and media on theirlives, and to regain a semblance of personal control, peopleincreasingly seek to make their own decisions wherever possible.Meanwhile, many consumers are suffering a financial hangover.The recession woke them up to just how much they hadborrowed or spent in recent years — in other words, how littleself-control they had been exercising.

The power of empowerment

The “consumer in control” trend is growing both vertically andhorizontally. Consumers are seeking influence over more andmore areas of their lives, and in an increasing number of ways.First, they are taking control of areas they might previously haveleft up to the experts. For instance, consumer attitudes towardhealth have changed dramatically in recent decades. The “selfhealth”trend sees patients increasingly determining their ownwellness. Consequently, the fastest-growing grocery products arethose perceived to be healthy. Sales of self-diagnostics and bookson nutrition are also rising, along with pharmacy sales. Othersectors with consumers retaking control include broadcast mediathrough DVRs, music through iTunes playlists, and educationthrough home schooling and private schools.Similar changes are taking place in financial services. Manyconsumers I spoke to mentioned taking greater control oftheir day-to-day finances. They increasingly live by budgetsand financial to-do lists —unprecedented practicesfor many people under30. Growth in demandfor borrowing and“overspending” has slowed.According to MasterCard,more than two-thirds ofEuropean consumers onlywant to spend what they canafford. And there are signsthat consumers may yet regainthe savings habit. In the U.S.,the savings rate leapt from0.8% to 5.9% during the twoyears preceding May 2009.Of course, consumers cannotdo all of this on their own.They need some help fromothers, which is why theimportance of formal andinformal peer-to-peer (P2P)purchase drivers is growing.According to a 2009 studyby Econsultancy, 90% ofonline consumers trustrecommendations frompeople they know, and 70%trust the opinions of unknownusers.

Meeting them where they are

Not only are consumerslooking to influence newareas of their lives, they arelooking to do so in newways. Impulse and brandledpurchasing is decliningas more consumers minedata online before theybuy. Consumers are alsodemanding greater influenceon when, where and howthey purchase. E-commercehas given many a taste for24/7 shopping, browsingand communicating,across any channel thatsuits them. Increasinglyconfident in expressing theirindividuality, consumers willexpect businesses to offerdifferentiated or customizableproducts to suit differingtastes. And they will wantto control how much ofa product they purchase,including the length of servicecontracts.

For the financial servicessector, banks and creditunions will need to adaptmany traditional products andpractices to better appeal tothe tastes of post-recessionconsumers. Those tastesinclude more customizablepackages; access to trainedstaff at any time via anycommunications channel; andgreater day-to-day control oversavings and investments.The more uncertain ofthe future customers andmembers become, the morethey will demand short-termcontracts and dividends, andthe more control they willexpect from long-term ones.The greater the influence ofpeer-to-peer advice, the morefinancial institutions will needto interact with customersonline, including marketingvia e-mail and social media— and perhaps even postingunfiltered user reviews ontheir websites. Financialinstitutions will also benefitgreatly from offering unbiasedinformation and advice atevery point of consumerinteraction.

Providing such services whileretaining profitability will notbe easy. But it must be done.Not only will you attract moreconsumers by doing so, butit will keep them loyal byincreasing their confidencein your ability to help themmaintain control over theirfinancial affairs over the longterm.

Customers In Control? Falling consumer confidence is driving Americans towards greater self-reliance

2011-09-01T17:12:00.000+01:00

ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN 'ADWEEK' 2010

"Spooked by the recession, consumers are looking for ways to take back the reins from institutions and brands alike. I've labeled this macro trend "control freaks."

"Falling consumer confidence is driving Americans towards greater self-reliance. The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index has remained below minus 40 for more than 100 weeks -- the worst levels on record. A recent Gallup poll for the Better Business Bureau found nearly half the consumers surveyed have just "some, very little or no trust at all" in the companies with which they do business.

"To limit the influence of institutions and brands, customers are taking greater charge over what, when, how and where they purchase or consume, wresting control from those they previously relied on. They're also exercising greater self-control, as they survey the problems their spending and borrowing levels have created.

"Additionally, they demand to browse, purchase from and communicate with brands using any channel that suits them, any time of day or night, and, thanks to the "media me" trend, are becoming their own program schedulers, news editors able to aggregate stories online and radio DJs via sources such as iTunes and Last FM.

"At the same time, the self-health trend sees more consumers determining their own well-being. More Americans now go online for medical advice on any given day than visit health professionals, according to the American Medical Association. Consequently the fastest-growing grocery brands are increasingly those perceived as healthy. Sales of self-diagnostics and books on topics like nutrition are rising. Retail sales of prescription drugs have soared: up 250 percent from 1995-2006, according to Census Bureau figures.

"Meanwhile, consumers are looking to limit their spending and borrowing. Today, 90 percent of Americans recognize the need to save more and spend less, up from less than three-quarters in 2008, according to research firm Technomic. Many under-35s I've spoken to recently are setting budgets and making financial to-do lists for the first time. High-end impulse purchasing seems in terminal decline.

"As well as helping themselves, consumers are helping each other. While trust in corporations is falling, trust among citizens is rising. According to an Econsultancy study last year, 90 percent of consumers online trust recommendations from people they know and 70 percent trust the opinions of unknown fellow users. The influence of peer-to-peer advice may overtake that of one-to-many marketing, from Amazon's reader reviews to travel recommendation sites like IGoUGo. Already 70 percent of Americans consult product reviews or consumer ratings before making a purchase, according to researchers Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates.

"The control freaks trend is set to grow. The more information consumers have at their fingertips, the greater their power. The Internet is a huge enabler, and increased Web access and the growth of mobile computing will empower them further. Nielsen says a quarter of Americans already own a smartphone, and sales will outstrip standard cell phones by late 2011. Add augmented reality and iPads, and the "consumer is king" trend seems increasingly like an understatement.

"There are no easy solutions for advertisers, but solutions will need to be found. The answer may lie in partnering with consumers via new permission marketing and socially networked models, and/or encouraging them to accept brands into their lives, by increasing incentivising, loyalty and smart targeting. One thing's for sure: able to access data and control purchasing like never before, American consumers will not return to the passive, top-down, brand-led model lovingly recreated in Mad Men and now increasingly looking like a distant fairy tale."

This articler was written by William Higham who is founder of market research and trend consultancy The Next Big Thing. He can be reached at william@next-big-thing.net.

[This article was published in AdWeek on 19th April 2010]

Pop Music as an Economic Indicator (Article written by Patrick Tucker in 'The Futurist')

2011-08-31T17:09:00.000+01:00

PUBLISHED IN 'THE FUTURIST' 2010

That long hemlines accompany a bad economy is an old saying in the fashion industry. Today, most experts regard hemline theory as fanciful, but a number of social theorists agree that trends in fashion, movies, or music do reflect public sentiment, which can influence stock market direction. Theoretically at least, new fads could point to shifting economic conditions. But finding the exact correlation between changing music tastes and economic performance is anything but easy.

William Higham, author of 'The Next Big Thing: Spotting and Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit' (Kogan Page, 2009), argues that the down economy and grumpy public sentiment forecasts an angry music wave in the coming year. However, economics is not the sole cause, says Higham. The next music fad will take more than one form, he believes.

“Consumers’ current mood, which blends confused, afraid, angry, and determined, is due to a mix of financial hardship, anger at being let down by politicians and big business, continuing fear of world events, the speed of technological/social change, and a reassessment of work/life priorities,” Higham told THE FUTURIST.

Jon P. Avlon, author of Independent Nation (Three Rivers Press, 2005), agrees that the public mood is bad and getting worse, and mainstream media will only exacerbate the grumpiness. The angry rhetoric rocking the airwaves and cable channels across the United States, the protestor clashes outside the Copenhagen Summit on Climate Change, and the Tea Party rallies that have lately sprung up in Washington, D.C., are a “reflection of a larger trend, the fragmentation of modern media, which has had an ironic effect on the way we get our information,” he wrote to THE FUTURIST. “The best ratings are achieved by [TV and radio] hosts who cultivate narrow but intense niche audiences. This has helped pump up the hate and hyper-partisanship we see today.”

Higham argues that previous eras of socioeconomic flux had two distinct and separate effects on pop culture. Mainstream music (which appeals more to baby boomers) became more quiet, subdued, and quaint, whereas “alternative” music, marketed primarily to younger people, became louder and more primal.

“Socioeconomic problems drove rock in the 1960s, heavy rock and punk in the 1970s, gangsta rap in the late 1980s, and grunge in the 1990s. So the new consumer mood will, I believe, drive a rise in both more aggressively patriotic mainstream roots music (the soundtrack to Tea Party anger) and more angry, dissonant Alternative music (the soundtrack to environmental protest),” he said.

Visible changes in fashion, television, movies, and particularly pop music can not only reflect a nation’s economic circumstances, but predict them as well, according to scholars with the Socionomics Institute.

In the October 2009 issue of The Socionomist, authors Matt Lampert and Euan Wilson claim that the commercial success of particular types of popular culture items — the music, movies, and TV shows that big-name clothiers and studios market to the public — can indicate stock market changes. When the public’s “social mood” and popular culture are both good, then upbeat or even vapid entertainment fare becomes the rage and the economy is likely in or about to enter a bullish cycle. Teen or tween pop acts such as the Jonas Brothers, Miley Cyrus, and High School Musical epitomized the bull market for stocks following the 2002 recession, say Lampert and Wilson. Supporting their theory, they point to the commercial success of 1980s bubblegum pop musicians such as Michael Jackson and Cyndi Lauper during a period of economic growth.

When both popular culture and social mood are down, movies, television, and music will trend toward the dark, gritty, dissatisfied, and potentially innovative; in a word, bearish. Lampert and Wilson attribute the rise of Seattle grunge aesthetic during the early 1990s to the recession that began in 1987, and the rise of punk rock in the mid-1970s to falling affluence and economic stagnation of that decade, particularly the 1970 to 1973 period.

A diminished stock market, high unemployment, and unprecedented government intervention that characterized the 2008 and 2009 economic environment portends terribly for social mood going forward. Recent poll numbers indicate as much. Some 55% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, and 66% say that they aren’t confident that their children’s lives will be better than their own (as opposed to 27% who are confident), according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll from December. Yet, popular music in the United States remained “planted in bull territory” during this time. The disconnect suggests a pop culture lag. Forecast: Expect further stock market losses and a downbeat music wave.

“The continued reign of light popular music is an indicator that stocks are high, not low,” write Lampert and Wilson. “Coincident socioeconomic indicators convey compatible messages, and we can use one to validate the other.... At minimum, when social mood turns negative, lyrical themes will become dark and melody will diminish. Many performers who play discordant, experimental styles will find an audience. A genre even more aggressive than punk will ultimately emerge.”

Whether music is becoming angrier, lighter, more primal, or more quaint is no easy determination in an environment where cultural trends can be measured using an ever-wider array of metrics. And music fads will remain an imprecise (at best) indicator of stock market performance into the foreseeable future, according to other sociologists.

“I think there might be a correlation,” says Higham, “but it would be a brave man to bet [his] portfolio on a number one hit album.”

— Patrick Tucker

Sources: The Socionomist (October 2009), www.socionomics.net.

The Next Big Thing: Spotting and Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit by William Highham. Kogan Page, 2009. 261 pages. $29.95.

[The above article was published today in 'The Futurist' magazine: the offical magazine of the World Future Society]

Trend Spotting On A Budget

2011-08-30T12:40:00.000+01:00

PUBLISHED IN 'CREAM' 2010

What’s the use of trend forecasting? In a period of technological and socio-economic stability, companies can rely much more on traditional marketing practices. With customer attitudes and behaviours remaining relatively constant, companies can focus on the best ways to exploit current needs, rather than identifying and exploiting new ones.

But in a period of change such as we are going through now, identifying trends become vital. Traditional consumer markets can no longer be relied upon. Innovation is key, and survival increasingly rests on the whim of the consumer. Companies that continue to target the same market in the same way can find sales falling away, as that market develops new behaviours or new attitudes. Customers may decide they no longer need a product. Or they may want to purchase it in a different form, or on a different platform or via a different channel. Alternatively, consumers that previously had no interest in a product may become a potential market. The more volatile consumer markets are, the more important it is to determine the direction, or trend, in which customer attitudes or behaviours are moving.

Hang on, many managers argue, observing and integrating trends costs money: a resource that is in short supply today. Leaving aside the argument that, as so many experts are reminding us, investment and innovation are actually more important than ever in an economic downturn, the question remains as to how companies can introduce what I call ‘Trend Marketing’ without breaking the bank. As I explain in my new book ‘The Next Big Thing’, there are actually several low cost ways to observe new trends.

One way to identify a trend is to study changes in statistical patterns. Commissioning new quantitative surveys or buying them off the shelf will typically provide the most focused data. But not all statistical data needs to cost money. A careful search can provide much free information. Like a journalist, a Trend Marketer needs to keep a bank of key sources. Some of these will provide universal information. Others will be sector or market-specific. Government polls are a useful source of information. Adding your name to departmental mailing lists will provide free regular press releases that can provide strong statistical data. Readers’ polls in consumer magazines can sometimes offer useful insights, especially among younger audiences. Commercial companies often run polls, the top line results of which they are willing to share. Data about the sales of individual products and services can be obtained from a company’s annual report; and data on new products can be obtained from company press releases. Most research companies also offer some of their research for free in a section of their website.

The media is another important source of cheap desk research. Scanning the right media sources can help marketers to identify or verify the existence of a trend. It can also provide data that aids in establishing the future development of a trend. Again, it is essential to look outside of your own industry. One of the first things a Trend Marketer must do is establish a library of favoured media titles, both online and offline. This should include the most authoritative titles across all key influencer fields. These should be a mix of news and non-news, consumer and industry media. Trend consultants can recommend regular reading lists.

One cheap way to conduct primary research is to use your own consumers. Those with access to dynamic customer data can interrogate it to establish relevant behavioural patterns. Those without it can use other evidence of customer behaviour. Studying product sales data, for instance, can offer clues as to possible trends. If certain products are selling well, what is it about them that might be particularly popular in the current climate. If, say, your lightest and smallest products are selling, could this be because consumers are focusing on portability? If products in single colours are selling well, could that indicate a return to a more minimalist aesthetic?

Informal (‘observational’) primary research can help identify innovator or early adopter trends. Data on behavioural change gained via a conversation in a bar or the sighting of a new fashion style won’t provide robust evidence of a trend. But it might offer a stimulus to more formal research. For instance, Dave Capper, President of Lifestyle Music & Media at global toy manufacturer Hasbro, told me that the initial inspiration for the company’s hugely successful ‘U Dance’ toy actually came from observing children playing with musical instruments in a museum. To observe consumer behaviours effectively, trend marketers typically need to locate themselves in an environment where early adopters gather. Again, a trends consultant can recommend where to begin. The informal observation process will typically combine visual reportage and depth interviews. You can also utilise ‘virtual observation’: the study of consumer attitudes by monitoring conversations on forums, blogs and socials networks.

Observing individual consumers can be time-consuming of course. Studying or interrogating those who themselves observe trends can reduce the amount of time and money spent on physical observation. These include academics, journalists, entrepreneurs and market researchers. It can also be useful to attend trend-related formal events outside of your own industry. Trade fairs provide good opportunities to observe new or potential product-related trends, and to see what the industry in question believes will be of interest in the coming year. My favourites are those for the food, book, toy, interiors and car industries: I always return from these with new insights that I can feed into the mix.

Managers who don’t have time to study trends can encourage their staff to look out for them, rewarding those who suggest useable trends, perhaps by introducing a quarterly prize for the most interesting. To bring greater formality to the process, Trend Marketing tasks can be added to individual staff members’ job functions, and a specific amount of time set aside per day or week for observation.

Of course spotting trends is only part of the story. Effective Trend Marketing requires not just identification, but interpretation and implementation too. As I illustrate in the book, once you have identified a trend, you will need to interpret how it is likely to develop. You need to establish if it is relevant to your company; and if so, if it offers a threat or an opportunity. And you need to determine how to adapt strategy accordingly. But spotting a relevant new consumer trend early can certainly put you one step ahead of your competitors. And in an era of change such as we are living through, that can make all the difference.

William Higham is a trends consultant & author of ‘The Next Big Thing: Spotting & Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit’ (Kogan Page)

[The above article first appeared on global innovation website Cream]

Article in 'Quality World' magazine

2011-07-27T13:23:00.000+01:00

PUBLISHED IN 'QUALITY WORLD' IN 2010

Four page article I wrote on the art of trend forecasting appears in this month's Quality World magazine.

The article reiterates one of the key points of my book: identifying trends is only part of the story - effectively interpreting and then integrating those trends into company policy is actually the most important part of the trend forecasting process.

Music Makes The World Go Round

2010-03-04T11:57:00.005+01:00

I've been compiling statistics on music-related revenues this week to support the launch of my consultancy's new music research division - and the picture really is much rosier than many commentators are making out.

Music today is more popular, more important and a greater revenue generator than ever. Despite industry concerns, consumer spend on music in the UK is rising. 152 million singles were sold in 2009 - a rise of 33% - and almost 130 million albums.[1] UK music industry revenues for the whole of 2008 were up 5% year on year at £3.63 billion. Britons buy more than two CDs per year on average. The value of tours increased steadily from £251m in 2005 to £403m in 2008. Touring revenues for the best selling acts rose 30% in 2008 alone.[2] Ticket sales grew by 13% in the first six months of 2009. And the year’s music festivals were expected to make £450 million, with an attendance of over 2 million people.[3] Total combined business to consumer revenues (live industry and recorded music retail) rose 3% in the first half of 2009: an impressive figure given the economic downturn.

It’s not just record companies and concert promoters that are making money from music today. Music is proving profitable across a huge range of brands and sectors: from technology and gaming to advertising. Recorded music sales make up just $8.5 billion of the £35 billion music market in the US, for instance.[4] Apple has now sold over 220 million iPods worlwide – and, pre-iPhone, almost half of all Apple’s revenues were from iPod sales.[5] Few mobile phones these days will sell without some sort of musicv player capability. Mobile music revenues are predicted to reach $5 billion worldwide by 2013. A third of smart phone owners with unlimited web access stream or download music.[6] Global sales of music-based video games in 2009 were $620 million.[7] In one global survey, 16% claimed to have bought a ringtone or music-related wallpaper for their mobile phone in the last year, 11% bought a music T-Shirt and another 11% some other music-related merchandise.[8]

More and more venues today – from shops to sports arenas – are discovering the effectiveness of providing targeted music for their customers. This is evidenced by an 8% increase in revenues for the PRS (the company that licenses music for public broadcast) in the first six months of 2009.[9] And it’s paying off. According to PRS figures, pubs with featured music take on average 44% more money than pubs without, rising to 60% on Fridays and Saturdays - and pubs without featured music are three times more likely to close than those with it.[10] Advertisers too have realised the power of music today, and marketing promotions increasingly use music as a key element. In 2009, business to business music-related revenues (collective and direct licensing, advertising, sponsorship) grew by 10% to almost £1 billion.[11]

One reason for its financial effectiveness is that music is a passion point. It is the most valued form of entertainment among UK 14–24 year olds.[12] And according to one major global survey, two thirds (63%) of consumers worldwide consider themselves passionate about music, rising to 72% in the US, 77% in South Korea, and 79% in the UK, Spain and Brazil. Just 6% of respondents claimed not to care about music. And 14% said they would listen to music every minute of the day if they could (rising to 49% in Brazil).[13] For younger people it can help them define their individuality, or cements and signals their tribal identity. As they age, it soundtracks important life stages and can be a powerful and evocative nostalgia driver.

Care must be taken when working with music. This emotional relationship with music makes it a unique proposition. Although people often claim they “just like” a particular act, song or genre, their relationship with it is typically driven by a complex range of psychological, aesthetic and socio-cultural factors. Companies need to gain a deep understanding of music consumers before embarking on any music-based campaign.

But if done correctly, music can really increase revenues. Adding the right music to your marketing, product range or retail outlet can provide a massive return.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[1] BPI, January 2010

[2] PRS, June 2009

[3] PRS, June 2009

[4] IFPI, January 2010

[5] Apple, September 2009

[6] Juniper Research, May 2009

[7] Wedbush Morgan, Dec 2009

[8] Music Matters / Synovate, January 2010

[9] PRS, July 2009

[10] PRS / CGA, December 2009

[11] BPI, January 2010

[12] University Of Hertfordshire’s Music and Entertainment Industry Management Research Group.

[13] Music Matters / Synovate, January 2010

Might Millennials be more broody?

2010-02-24T11:44:00.006+01:00

The birth rate is rising in the US. Over 4.3 million births were recorded there in 2007 (the most recent year for which there are figures). This is the largest number of births ever recorded in the US - and the figure is projected to rise to 4.6 million in 2020. This is due to increases in two population segments: the millennials and the Hispanic population.

The growing importance of Hispanic consumers in the US - although interesting - is well documented. What interests me here is what is happening among the Millennials.

In 2007, 79% of all first-births and 68% of all births in the US were to Millennial mothers (those born after 1977). And the teen birth rate increased in 2006 and 2007 for the first time since 1991: from 40.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19 in 2005 to 41.9 in 2006 to 42.5 in 2007.

I don't believe this is just down to promiscuity. I have spoken at length about the more conservative attitudes of Millennials compared to their (Generation X and Baby Boomer) parents. And I believe these figures provide yet more evidence.

There is a tendency among some commentators to believe that the trend away from the traditional nuclear family that began in the 1960s will follow an ever-upwards curve. But trends do not work like that. They rise and fall due to changing social, attitudinal, technological and economic factors. And the Millennials are proving this to be true once more. The natural reaction to years of liberalism and hedonism is not necessarily more liberalism and hedonism, it is in fact more likely to be a reaction against them.

The Millennials, although progressive in their technological behaviours, are starting to show signs of a greater conservatism elsewhere. As I have shown before, teenagers today (despite tabloid headlines) are on average drinking less and taking fewer drugs - and are typically less carefree and iconoclastic - than previous generations. And it makes sense that a generation that seeks the security of traditional attitudes and behaviours in its leisure activities could seek them in its relationships too.

It's still very early days, but might the birth rate figures above be the very first indications of a trend back towards the nuclear family? ...

All figures The Parents Network, May 2009)

Restaurant Consumers Seek Comfort, Nostalgia, Artisanry

2010-02-16T12:15:00.003+01:00

Top menu trends from Flavor & The Menu magazine show several of our key 2010 Macro trends such as Comfort, Nostalgia and Artisanry moving into the Dining sector.

Micro trends include:

"Blue plate updates. Consumers will desire casual dining formats that boost value and enhance the dining experience, such as family-style dinners, Sunday suppers..."

"American tavern. This revival is bringing about a new standard of pub fare, in concept and menu focus. Pared-down menus will be more hand-crafted, offering reasonably priced, flavor-focused food and drinks that are distinctly American ..."

"Signature sausages. Signature sausages are showing up as ingredients in proprietary recipes, house-made and artisan sausages are increasingly popular as center-plate options, and hot dogs are becoming increasingly sophisticated with premium ingredients, buns and condiments ..."

"Rustic revolution. Essentially meaning comfortable and affordable, “rustic” encompasses everything from farmhouse tables and pared-down decor to foraged foods, farmstead cheeses and regional, home-style cooking ..."

"Sentimental sweets. Even the most sophisticated pastry chefs are interpreting traditional childhood sweets such as cupcakes, cookies, whoopie pies and popsicles. The soft economy is increasing the popularity of traditional desserts with consumers ..."

One in 5 Superbowl watchers were online

2010-02-10T12:14:00.003+01:00

According to Nielsen, 12% of people watching the Super Bowl last year were online at the same time. The average time spent online was 24 minutes. Only 18% of them visited sports sites: the rest were searching, emailing or browsing social networks.

We can expect the stats to be even higher this year, as the Multimedia-tasking trend grows

(Thanks to Mashable for highlighting the stats)

Tips for Trend Forecasting - on a Budget

2010-02-05T12:03:00.006+01:00

“One of the first things I do every morning is spend half an hour going through blogs and news articles. It’s a habit that I’ve got into just to see what the latest thinking is, what the analysis on different markets is, what people think are the emerging trends, what the shifts and the predictions are. ” Mark Broughton, Research Insights & Knowledge Manager, Global Product Development, Alliance Boots

“I look at magazines and internet sites. I speak to a variety of people. I go to seminars. I read specific trend magazines and a variety of different design and interiors magazines.” Brechje Vissers, ex-Senior Trend Consultant, Philips (Netherlands)

“You can learn a lot from the people within your company. It’s almost like having your own internal scout network. We’ve set up a monthly forum in which we offer people from across a range of departments the opportunity to talk about the trends they’ve found. The sort of thing they might have just talked about casually over a coffee before, we now give them the chance to actually present.” Hanna Chalmers, Head of Research & Insight, Universal Music Group

“At a global level, we’ll look at what the individual [offices] around the world are identifying as their growth opportunities or threats ... One of the advantages of a decentralised company is that you get to have eyes and ears throughout the world that are motivated to keep tabs on what’s keeping their local customers happy, what the competition’s doing and so on. It’s almost like our own little internet or scout network.” Tom Pickles, Senior Director, Global Menu Solutions, McDonalds (USA)

“I’m always interfering with people when they’re shopping. It’s really easy. You just say something like ‘I’ve never tried that brand: what’s it like?’ or ‘Have you ever tried this brand, and how does it compare?” Sheila Byfield, Leader, Business Planning, Mindshare

"I subscribe to a lot of different websites. From cool hunting websites through to some of the trend websites. And I always read the newspapers and watch the news. And I search around people’s blogs. If I come across an emerging trend then I’ll read whatever’s been written on that. I’ll just have my eyes open whenever I’m going out. And I’ll listen to other people’s conversations as well. It’s all about testing the temperature of consumer attitudes.” Camilla Vickerage, ex-Research Manager ICI Paints

“Even just sitting down in the Arndale Shopping Centre and watching how people are dressed or how they’re walking can provide insights.” Wayne Garvie, Director of Production & Content, BBC Worldwide

[The quotes above are just a small selection of the many hints and tips offered in The Next Big Thing: Spotting & Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit]

Community Spirit trend grows

2010-02-01T11:43:00.010+01:00

Mintel published interesting new research today about anxiety levels in the UK ('Attitudes Towards Health - Stress - UK 2010').

Unsurprisingly, anxiety levels have grown. 40 million Britons now admit to suffering from stress and anxiety; just 17% claim they are not experiencing some kind of worry; and a third are suffering from three or more worries concurrently. Also unsurprisingly, money is the number one worry.

To me the most interesting findings in the report are those that add further evidence to what I have previously identified as a key trend for the new decade: Community Spirit. This is a trend that sees a growing number of consumers in Europe and the US becoming concerned for their 'fellow man', as a result of the Recession, and as part of broader community/locality trends.

The research published today adds greater robustness to the trend. Although money is the number one concern among Britons today (a worry for 40% of them), the second biggest concern is "the problems of friends and family members" (25%). This is now higher than previously important worries such as health (24%), stress at work (22%) and job security or employment (21%).

Meanwhile, "socialising with friends and family" has become the most popular way to cope with stress. 54% favour this method, compared to just 40% who favour listening to music or reading a book (40%), 33% exercising or playing a sport and 22% spending one on one time with a partner or significant other - all of which have previously been key "stress busters".

Terrible Trend Terms #1

2010-01-28T13:59:00.007+01:00

Welcome to the first of what looks to be a long series ... Terrible terms for new consumer trends or segments.

Trend forecasters are regularly lampooned for coming up with 'ridiculous' names, but 8 times out of 10 it's the media that makes up the name, not us. (My least favourite of all time is the 'posh-ocracy', which I once saw in a style mag: you can't be a pun on something - ie 'aristocracy' - if you actually mean exactly the same thing as the word you're punning on ...)

Coming up with a good term for a new trend is hugely important. As I explore in my book The Next Big Thing, the right name can actually help clients or colleagues pick up on a trend: the more memorable, the more it will be used. But the more bad terms that get bandied about, the less credibility the good names have. And that's bad news for trend forecasting, and for innovation and forward thinking strategy as a whole.

Anyway, let's start the series with 'Quintastics': the new term for today's energetic 50-somethings, courtesy of The Daily Telegraph today.

Firstly aren't we getting a bit tired of terms that show how those (esp. women) over the age of 30 aren't 'past it'? Not only is it patronising, but Emma Soames came up with the definitive term 'The New Old' years ago.

Secondly, semantically it's a non-starter. Who ever thinks of "quint" as being fifty? Not only is it not a common term, it's not even correct: it's the Latin for 5 not 50. Plus it doesn't even work as a pun: the only link between "quint" and "fantastic" is the letter "t", which is pretty thin.

I just hope the term quickly dies the death it deserves ....

London Toy Fair January 2010

2010-01-28T13:06:00.004+01:00

No major revelations at this year's London Toy Fair, but proof and consolidation of some new-ish trends.

Key themes were portability, personalisation, good value and (again) tradition/wood.

The 1940s and Victorian/Edwardian are the two key eras for both games and packaging. And there were more puppets than usual (the natural confluence of wood and tradition trends?).

For girls, less bling and more Toys For Tomboys: from workbenches to a pink 'shooter gun' for the Wii.

There was also greater focus on toys that can be carried or easily stored, and more small, cheap toys (incluing several 'animals in a tube').

Talking of animals, yet more farms and safaris this year. Loads more horses too (perhaps the next general animal trend?) and a small smattering of wolves (Narnia meets The Road?) and raccoons (the next 'cute' animal post-seals and meercats?) ...

London Toy Fair, Olympia, 26th-28th January 2010

Future of the E-Book?

2010-01-25T09:57:00.008+01:00

One problem some traditionalist book readers have with E-Books is that they don't replicate the intimate, 'human' relationship between reader and book: that feeling of curling up with a battered old paperback. I've argued that this is about product design not product concept. Sure, a sleek design might be okay for geeks or business people - but a more organic look will appeal to more mainstream readers.

TwelveSouth's new leather cover for the Mac Book (pictured) could provide the answer - if Kindles or Sony E-Readers had covers like this, they might prove more enticing for traditionalist readers ...

[With thanks to Cyana at Trendland for the heads up]

Management Today article

2010-01-22T11:41:00.008+01:00

Good article in Management Today on how to spot trends. It includes interviews with myself, Renier Evers of Trendspotting & Magnus Lindkvist of Pattern Recognition (nice company to be in) - and even a name check for my book in the title!

Crash Course: Seven ways to spot the next big thing

How can you get ahead of the curve and start spotting trends before they happen? The world is changing fast but your firm seems constantly to react after the event. New year, new decade: an opportune moment to find ways of spotting trends before they happen and to move ahead of the curve?

1. Understand what trends are...
'A trend is a change in consumer attitudes or behaviours,' says William Higham, author of The Next Big Thing and founder of consultancy www.next-big-thing.net. 'The reason you want to predict trends is so your products, services, and the channels and attitudes you use in communication, all tie in with these changes.' Micro-trends are short-term changes; mega-trends are long-term ones.

2. ... and what they're not.
Fads are short-lived products and behaviours that are often driven by marketing; think Cabbage Patch dolls. They might give a clue to an underlying trend, though. If in doubt, are there data to measure the change? ...

5. Seek far and wide.
Don't just look inside your own industry. 'Many trends start in fashion, design and technology-based industries,' notes Higham. Look at media, competitors, research studies, government data, online chat and your own customers for the fullest possible data. Tap into a trend-spotting network. Simple, visible, cash-saving trends are more likely to last, he adds.

Five New Consumer Trends for Small Businesses

2010-01-21T10:34:00.004+01:00

A new article on 'Five New Consumer Trends Small Businesses Should Capitalize On Now." Paul Diamond at Vistage interviews me about five trends I consider it's vital that small businesses act on. These are: Brand Aid, Simplicity, Short Termism, Conscious Consumerism (yes it's back - but this time it's not so altruistic) and Customer Profiling.

Review in Indian national daily

2010-01-15T11:25:00.006+01:00

A great review/feature on my book The Next Big Thing in India's national daily The Hindu

Tips for Finding Free Research Data

2010-01-12T10:15:00.000+01:00

Not all statistical data needs to cost money. A careful search can provide a great deal of free information. Good trend marketers have a lot in common with good investigative reporters. Like a journalist, a trend marketer needs to keep a bank of key sources. Some of these will provide universal information. Others will be sector or market-specific.

Government polls can be a useful source of data. Commissioned by individual government departments, they are typically available free. Adding your name to departmental mailing lists will provide regular press releases that detail any research that has been conducted and the most relevant statistics from it. Commercial companies often run polls, the top line results of which they are willing to share. Magazines also often conduct polls of their readers, and these can sometimes offer useful insights, especially among younger audiences. For instance, youth magazine reader surveys in the early 2000s provided me with early clues as to the changing social attitudes of teenagers.

Data about the sales of individual products and services can be obtained from a company’s annual report. And data on new products can be obtained from company press releases. You can obtain these by searching for them online, by signing up to company or PR mailing lists or by looking at the Press, Media or Investor Relations section of a company’s website. Most research companies offer some of their research for free. If you search their websites, you will often find a separate section that provides gratis data. This will typically be older data, and may be located in an archive section. If there is no such section, you can obtain some data by reading the press releases that can be found in the Press section.

[This is an edited extract from The Next Big Thing: Spotting & Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit]

Google Phone

2010-01-06T15:32:00.002+01:00

Read my comments on the new Google phone and the inexorable rise of the smartphone in Deutsche Welle today

Women workers of the world unite

2010-01-05T18:36:00.006+01:00

Among many in the worlds of Media, Advertising and Business, the dominant image of a worker (be it blue or white collar) is still male.

Yet in the US, women now make up over half (51%) of all professional workers.

And an even more significant milestone is about to be passed. As of October 2009, 49.9% of the entire workforce was women. And that will reach 50% within the next few months. Yes, by the Summer, half of ALL workers in the US will be women.

Although these figures are still a while off in some territories (e.g. Italy and Japan), they are becoming the norm across much of the globe - even in such previously 'macho' societies such as Spain. For instance, women have filled 6m of the 8m new jobs created in the EU since 2000.

Of course, few are unaware that the number of women in the workforce is growing. But the sheer scale of the trend seems to have passed many by (hands up you in advertising and market research).

And as this article in The Economist shows, the trend has a host of interesting implications, not just in the workplace but in the home and the retail space too.

Music Trends - The 2000s

2010-01-02T11:19:00.000+01:00

Article on music trends in the 2000s in Abu Dhabi national newspaper 'The National', includes my comments on key trends plus predictions for 2010s

15 Best Predictions for 2010

2009-12-21T15:22:00.014+01:00

I've trawled through dozens of predictions for 2010 and pulled out the very best. So here, from a huge range of different publications and blogs, are the 15 key trends for 2010 that every business should know: from the serious to the social, from finance to food (with a link to the original article for each).

1. “Waste not, want not” messaging will gain strength. While “save money” messaging still tests well, one of our recent national surveys found 12 percent of Americans believe “don’t waste” is the strongest message to get them to conserve. That means a utility could motivate homeowners to conserve by telling them, “You’re wasting money turning up your thermostat!” rather than “Save money by turning down your thermostat.” It’s a subtle distinction – but for these consumers, a very important one. (Travel Trends by Suzanne Shelton, Shelton Group)

2. Value is the new black. Consumer spending, even on sale items, will continue to be replaced by a reason-to-buy at all. This spells trouble for brands with no authentic meaning, whether high-end or low. (Branding & Marketing Trends by Robert Passikoff, President, Brand Keys)

3. The recession will not end, regardless what anyone says. There are just too many issues that still need resolution before this economy can rebound, like the write-down of ALL of the bad assets on the books of the financial institutions. The fact that they are still not lending much to existing or new customers should be a sign that they know they still have a lot to lose before they can begin to gain again. In addition, the new business models that are emerging in this recession are leaner and meaner than we have seen in a long time, meaning they aren’t going to help unemployment any time soon. The effects of this recession could last quite a while. (Trends for Entrepreneurs by Ken Kaufman, CFO-Wise)

4. The New Local Movement. Driven by changing demographics, technology, rising energy prices and concerns about the environment, (consumers) are increasingly focusing on their families, friends and communities. (Small Business Trends by Steve King, Partner, Emergent Research)

5. Performance Naturally. The energy drinks and energy food boom will continue, but with a shift towards more natural products. With the World Cup and the Olympics looming in the UK, sports and energy foods in general will gain greater exposure. (Foods Trends by Leatherhead Food Research)

6. Granny Chic. A move away from look-don't-touch minimalist (leisure interiors) to traditional-with-a-twist homey comforts as exemplified by Dean Street Townhouse in London. (Travel Trends by Juliet Kinsman, Editor In Chief, Mr & Mrs Smith)

7. Not Gonna Take It. Sigg. BPA. E. coli. Tea parties. TARP rage. To put it simply, people have some edge to their attitudes. But in 2010, that won’t mean futile stewing. Citizen-consumers are feeling empowered to tap the crowd for power and change. (Big Ideas by Iconoculture)

8. Leaders and icons. During times of uncertainty, leaders and icons help pull groups together to focus on common goals and ideals. With our current uncertainty and unrest, we see more people seeking out political and cultural leaders as guides. This is also true for products. Consumers are seeking brands that have clear and simple messages, that can be easily understood, and are easy to relate to. Quality, trust, and value must be readily apparent throughout a brand’s message. We must be careful of superfluous elements that may dilute. Iconic brand histories are being revisited, celebrated, and leveraged. (Design Trends by Jack Bredenfoerder, Design Director, Landor)

9. Grooming for Men. 2010 will see more grooming products for the “metrosexual” male, both under such basic brands as Nivea and an increasing number of niche brands, including L’Oreal Men Expert. (Packaged Goods Trends by Mintel CPG Predictions 2010)

10. Humble Gourmet. On the heels of the success enjoyed by gourmet burger chains and mac and cheese restaurants in the US, more simple foods done well will continue to pop up on restaurant menus. Look for gourmet meatloaf, braises, stews and hot dogs made with artisan care and quality on even high end menus. (Food Trends by Dana McCauley, Dana McCauley & Associates)

11. Real-time ramps up. Sparked by Twitter, Facebook and FriendFeed, the real-time trend has been to the latter part of 2009 what "Web 2.0" was to 2007. The term represents the growing demand for immediacy in our interactions. Immediacy is compelling, engaging, highly addictive ... it's a sense of living in the now. But real-time is more than just a horde of new Twitter-like services hitting the Web in 2010 (although that's inevitable -- cargo cults abound). It's a combination of factors, from the always-connected nature of modern smartphones to the instant gratification provided by a Google search. ()

12. Potlucks. With wallets and schedules tight, having guests bring a specialty reduces the burden on the host and lets your friends show off their own Iron Chef culinary skills. (Food Trends by Tanya Steel, Epicurious)

13. Social media begins to look less social. With groups, lists and niche networks becoming more popular, networks could begin to feel more "exclusive." Not everyone can fit on someone's newly created Twitter list and as networks begin to fill with noise, it's likely that user behavior such as "hiding" the hyperactive updaters that appear in your Facebook news feed may become more common. Perhaps it's not actually less social, but it might seem that way as we all come to terms with getting value out of our networks — while filtering out the clutter. (Social Media Trends by David Armano, Co-Founder, Dachis Group)

14. Twitter becoming the leading NEWS system. Twitter will change quite dramatically. It will become the world's dominant News aggregator and distributor. As such the personal "chit chat" will get more and more just background noise. (Social Media Trends by Axel Shulze, founder of the Social Media Academy)

15. The Senior Market. Bladders have never been bigger or badder. Same with vision care, cosmeceuticals and pretty much every other business associated with aging. You name it--catered tea parties, tech assistance, medical waste disposal, senior dating sites--you can profit from it. So forget how unsexy it sounds, because businesses aimed at retiring boomers are, well, booming. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the aging-services industry, composed of home healthcare, elderly and disabled services and community care facilities for the elderly, make up three of the top 10 industries with the fastest employment growth. The Chronicle of Higher Education even named gerontology one of the "hottest" academic fields of the future. (Trends for Entrepreneurs by Entrepreneur magazine)

20 Short-sighted Predictions

2009-12-15T14:38:00.000+01:00

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Ken Olson, president, computer manufacturers DEC, 1977

"Television won't last. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."
Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 1946

"The horse is here to stay but the automobile's just a fad.”
President of Michigan Savings Bank, 1903

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."
Internal memo, Western Union, 1878

"The cinema is little more than a fad."
Charlie Chaplin, 1916

"The automobile has reached the limit of its development."
Scientific American magazine, 1909

"There is a total world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman, IBM, 1943

"Guitar music is on the way out."
Dick Rowe, Decca Records, rejecting The Beatles, 1962

"The Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big share of the US market for itself."
Business Week, 1968

“Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.”
Marshal Ferdinand Foch, French military strategist and later military commander, 1911.

"You ain't going nowhere as a singer, Mr Presley. Go back to driving a truck.”
Jim Denny, owner, Grand Ole Opry club to Elvis Presley, 1954

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
Irving Fisher, economics professor, Yale, early 1929 (a month before The Great Crash)

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"
Harry Warner, founder, Warner Brothers, 1927

"Nuclear energy will never be obtainable."
Albert Einstein, 1932

"No one will pay good money to get from Berlin to Potsdam in one hour when he can ride his horse there in one day for free."
King William I of Prussia on hearing of the invention of trains, 1864

"The phonograph has no commercial value at all."
Thomas Edison, 1880.

“Computers in the future may perhaps only weigh 1.5 tons.”
Popular Mechanics, 1949.

"I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face and not Gary Cooper."
Gary Cooper declining the lead role in 'Gone with the Wind'

"Atomic energy might be as good as our present-day explosives, but it is unlikely to produce anything very much more dangerous."
Winston Churchill, British Prime Minister, 1939

"I see no good reasons why the views given in this volume should shock the religious sensibilities of anyone."
Charles Darwin, in the foreword to The Origin of Species, 1869

10 Trends for the 2010s

2009-12-14T14:57:00.003+01:00

10 Trends for the 2010s

1. Re-Booting
2. Waste Not Want Not
3. Return to Romance
4. We Decade
5. Word of Mouse
6. Walking Web
7. Shelf Death
8. Self Health
9. Soft Technology
10. Brand Aid

For more information or an in-person presentation, email william@next-big-thing.net

Monday news

2009-12-14T13:33:00.003+01:00

Even free-content-champions The Guardian are now starting to charge for content. They have created an app for the iPhone for £2.39 that enables you to view their online content. Check out the story at Media Week. This is further evidence of what I believe is a slow but inexorable trend away from free online content.

Meanwhile, it appears that Google is soon to launch its own mobile phone. (See Brand Republic story)With non-traditional-manufacturers Apple and now Google launching their own handsets, it puts added pressure on traditional mobile handset manufacturers. Might we start to see a trend for non-traditional-manufacturers launching products in other industries?

How not to be fooled by statistics

2009-11-02T10:17:00.000+01:00

There are several ways to test the veracity of any poll, whether you find it on a government website, in a company press release or in the pages of a daily newspaper.

Firstly, you should verify the size of the sample a poll is based upon. The larger the sample questioned, the more credibility can be placed on the findings. I spoke to someone recently from a health-related shoe company, who admitted the efficacy of their product is based on a sample of just 10 people. Clearly data based on a sample this small will be of little use and should be discarded. Marketers must also be careful of claims based on small percentages. A one hundred per cent increase in the number of people doing something sounds impressive. But that might simply mean that instead of 2% of a group behaving in one way, now 4% are doing so.

The same holds true for smaller samples within a large sample. Imagine a group of consumers that use products W, X, Y and Z. The figures may show that more people like W than X. But if 90% of people only use Y or Z, then the sample of those who actually use W or X is in itself too small to take meaningful data from.

Where possible, recruitment criteria should be checked too. The sample should be representative of the market being tested and not biased towards a particular typology or attribute.

The wording of questions or multiple-choice answers in a poll should also be studied. Sometimes researchers can ‘load’ a question so as to obtain a more favourable result.

The way that researchers word their results when writing a report can also be manipulated. Words like ‘only’ or ‘as many as’ can be inserted into reports to make the reader think that the figure is either surprisingly low or surprisingly high. Forecasters should always mentally remove such phrases and then re-phrase the figures quoted. If a report states that ‘as many as 25% of people do X’ that might seem impressive, until one removes the first three words and reverses the figure. At that point you realise that three quarters of those polled do not do X.

Be careful too of comparisons between two data in a times series. Always try to obtain all of the available data. Comparing figures from, say, 2007 and 2003 might suggest a major shift in a particular behaviour. But the researchers may have chosen those two particular years to compare simply because they were the most extreme, or most favourable to their brand.

[More on this topic can be found in The Next Big Thing: Spotting & Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit]

2009-11-01T15:57:00.000+01:00

THE NEXT BIG THING

The Next Big Thing is the first book to reveal how consumer trends work and how to use that knowledge to drive strategic and operational decision-making. It shows you how to uncover new trends before they reach the mainstream – enabling you to target customers more effectively, expand your markets and develop more desirable products and communications campaigns: boosting profits and driving you ahead of the competition.

It is written by William Higham, who runs market research & trend consultancy The Next Big Thing.
(Twitter Profile, LinkedIn Profile)

"A unique guidebook for any company or entrepreneur hoping to understand how to stay one step ahead of the competition."
Wayne Garvie, Managing Director of Content & Production, BBC Worldwide

"An inspiration for anyone interested in making greater use of trends in their business."
Gavin Emsden, Food & Beverage Insights Director, Nestle UK

"Finally there is a how-to book about this important subject."
Liisa Puolakka, Head of Brand Identity, Nokia

"A ‘must-read’ reference."
Marcel Engh, Vice President, Brand Entertainment, Sony Music Europe