THE NEXT BIG THING

SPOTTING & FORECASTING CONSUMER TRENDS FOR PROFIT

'The Next Big Thing' is the first book to reveal how consumer trends work and how to use that knowledge to drive strategic and operational decision-making. It shows you how to uncover new trends before they reach the mainstream – enabling you to target customers more effectively, expand your markets and develop more desirable products and communications campaigns: boosting profits and driving you ahead of the competition. It is written by William Higham, who runs market research & trend consultancy 'The Next Big Thing'

"A unique guidebook for any company or entrepreneur hoping to understand how to stay one step ahead of the competition."
Wayne Garvie, Managing Director of Content & Production, BBC Worldwide

"An inspiration for anyone interested in making greater use of trends in their business."
Gavin Emsden, Food & Beverage Insights Director, Nestle UK

"Finally there is a how-to book about this important subject."
Liisa Puolakka, Head of Brand Identity, Nokia

"A ‘must-read’ reference."
Marcel Engh, Vice President, Brand Entertainment, Sony Music Europe

15 Best Predictions for 2010

I've trawled through dozens of predictions for 2010 and pulled out the very best. So here, from a huge range of different publications and blogs, are the 15 key trends for 2010 that every business should know: from the serious to the social, from finance to food (with a link to the original article for each).

1. “Waste not, want not” messaging will gain strength. While “save money” messaging still tests well, one of our recent national surveys found 12 percent of Americans believe “don’t waste” is the strongest message to get them to conserve. That means a utility could motivate homeowners to conserve by telling them, “You’re wasting money turning up your thermostat!” rather than “Save money by turning down your thermostat.” It’s a subtle distinction – but for these consumers, a very important one. (Travel Trends by Suzanne Shelton, Shelton Group)

2. Value is the new black. Consumer spending, even on sale items, will continue to be replaced by a reason-to-buy at all. This spells trouble for brands with no authentic meaning, whether high-end or low. (Branding & Marketing Trends by Robert Passikoff, President, Brand Keys)

3. The recession will not end, regardless what anyone says. There are just too many issues that still need resolution before this economy can rebound, like the write-down of ALL of the bad assets on the books of the financial institutions. The fact that they are still not lending much to existing or new customers should be a sign that they know they still have a lot to lose before they can begin to gain again. In addition, the new business models that are emerging in this recession are leaner and meaner than we have seen in a long time, meaning they aren’t going to help unemployment any time soon. The effects of this recession could last quite a while. (Trends for Entrepreneurs by Ken Kaufman, CFO-Wise)

4. The New Local Movement. Driven by changing demographics, technology, rising energy prices and concerns about the environment, (consumers) are increasingly focusing on their families, friends and communities. (Small Business Trends by Steve King, Partner, Emergent Research)

5. Performance Naturally. The energy drinks and energy food boom will continue, but with a shift towards more natural products. With the World Cup and the Olympics looming in the UK, sports and energy foods in general will gain greater exposure. (Foods Trends by Leatherhead Food Research)

6. Granny Chic. A move away from look-don't-touch minimalist (leisure interiors) to traditional-with-a-twist homey comforts as exemplified by Dean Street Townhouse in London. (Travel Trends by Juliet Kinsman, Editor In Chief, Mr & Mrs Smith)

7. Not Gonna Take It. Sigg. BPA. E. coli. Tea parties. TARP rage. To put it simply, people have some edge to their attitudes. But in 2010, that won’t mean futile stewing. Citizen-consumers are feeling empowered to tap the crowd for power and change. (Big Ideas by Iconoculture)

8. Leaders and icons. During times of uncertainty, leaders and icons help pull groups together to focus on common goals and ideals. With our current uncertainty and unrest, we see more people seeking out political and cultural leaders as guides. This is also true for products. Consumers are seeking brands that have clear and simple messages, that can be easily understood, and are easy to relate to. Quality, trust, and value must be readily apparent throughout a brand’s message. We must be careful of superfluous elements that may dilute. Iconic brand histories are being revisited, celebrated, and leveraged. (Design Trends by Jack Bredenfoerder, Design Director, Landor)

9. Grooming for Men. 2010 will see more grooming products for the “metrosexual” male, both under such basic brands as Nivea and an increasing number of niche brands, including L’Oreal Men Expert. (Packaged Goods Trends by Mintel CPG Predictions 2010)

10. Humble Gourmet. On the heels of the success enjoyed by gourmet burger chains and mac and cheese restaurants in the US, more simple foods done well will continue to pop up on restaurant menus. Look for gourmet meatloaf, braises, stews and hot dogs made with artisan care and quality on even high end menus. (Food Trends by Dana McCauley, Dana McCauley & Associates)

11. Real-time ramps up. Sparked by Twitter, Facebook and FriendFeed, the real-time trend has been to the latter part of 2009 what "Web 2.0" was to 2007. The term represents the growing demand for immediacy in our interactions. Immediacy is compelling, engaging, highly addictive ... it's a sense of living in the now. But real-time is more than just a horde of new Twitter-like services hitting the Web in 2010 (although that's inevitable -- cargo cults abound). It's a combination of factors, from the always-connected nature of modern smartphones to the instant gratification provided by a Google search. ()

12. Potlucks. With wallets and schedules tight, having guests bring a specialty reduces the burden on the host and lets your friends show off their own Iron Chef culinary skills. (Food Trends by Tanya Steel, Epicurious)

13. Social media begins to look less social. With groups, lists and niche networks becoming more popular, networks could begin to feel more "exclusive." Not everyone can fit on someone's newly created Twitter list and as networks begin to fill with noise, it's likely that user behavior such as "hiding" the hyperactive updaters that appear in your Facebook news feed may become more common. Perhaps it's not actually less social, but it might seem that way as we all come to terms with getting value out of our networks — while filtering out the clutter. (Social Media Trends by David Armano, Co-Founder, Dachis Group)

14. Twitter becoming the leading NEWS system. Twitter will change quite dramatically. It will become the world's dominant News aggregator and distributor. As such the personal "chit chat" will get more and more just background noise. (Social Media Trends by Axel Shulze, founder of the Social Media Academy)

15. The Senior Market. Bladders have never been bigger or badder. Same with vision care, cosmeceuticals and pretty much every other business associated with aging. You name it--catered tea parties, tech assistance, medical waste disposal, senior dating sites--you can profit from it. So forget how unsexy it sounds, because businesses aimed at retiring boomers are, well, booming. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the aging-services industry, composed of home healthcare, elderly and disabled services and community care facilities for the elderly, make up three of the top 10 industries with the fastest employment growth. The Chronicle of Higher Education even named gerontology one of the "hottest" academic fields of the future. (Trends for Entrepreneurs by Entrepreneur magazine)

10 Trends for the 2010s

10 Trends for the 2010s

1. Re-Booting
2. Waste Not Want Not
3. Return to Romance
4. We Decade
5. Word of Mouse
6. Walking Web
7. Shelf Death
8. Self Health
9. Soft Technology
10. Brand Aid

For more information or an in-person presentation, email william@next-big-thing.net

Monday news

Even free-content-champions The Guardian are now starting to charge for content. They have created an app for the iPhone for £2.39 that enables you to view their online content. Check out the story at Media Week. This is further evidence of what I believe is a slow but inexorable trend away from free online content.

Meanwhile, it appears that Google is soon to launch its own mobile phone. (See Brand Republic story)With non-traditional-manufacturers Apple and now Google launching their own handsets, it puts added pressure on traditional mobile handset manufacturers. Might we start to see a trend for non-traditional-manufacturers launching products in other industries?

20 Short-sighted Predictions

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Ken Olson, president, computer manufacturers DEC, 1977

"Television won't last. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."
Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 1946

"The horse is here to stay but the automobile's just a fad.”
President of Michigan Savings Bank, 1903

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."
Internal memo, Western Union, 1878

"The cinema is little more than a fad."
Charlie Chaplin, 1916

"The automobile has reached the limit of its development."
Scientific American magazine, 1909

"There is a total world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman, IBM, 1943

"Guitar music is on the way out."
Dick Rowe, Decca Records, rejecting The Beatles, 1962

"The Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big share of the US market for itself."
Business Week, 1968

“Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.”
Marshal Ferdinand Foch, French military strategist and later military commander, 1911.

"You ain't going nowhere as a singer, Mr Presley. Go back to driving a truck.”
Jim Denny, owner, Grand Ole Opry club to Elvis Presley, 1954

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
Irving Fisher, economics professor, Yale, early 1929 (a month before The Great Crash)

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"
Harry Warner, founder, Warner Brothers, 1927

"Nuclear energy will never be obtainable."
Albert Einstein, 1932

"No one will pay good money to get from Berlin to Potsdam in one hour when he can ride his horse there in one day for free."
King William I of Prussia on hearing of the invention of trains, 1864

"The phonograph has no commercial value at all."
Thomas Edison, 1880.

“Computers in the future may perhaps only weigh 1.5 tons.”
Popular Mechanics, 1949.

"I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face and not Gary Cooper."
Gary Cooper declining the lead role in 'Gone with the Wind'

"Atomic energy might be as good as our present-day explosives, but it is unlikely to produce anything very much more dangerous."
Winston Churchill, British Prime Minister, 1939

"I see no good reasons why the views given in this volume should shock the religious sensibilities of anyone."
Charles Darwin, in the foreword to The Origin of Species, 1869

TREND FORECASTING ON A BUDGET - A FEW TIPS

“I look at magazines and internet sites. I speak to a variety of people. I go to seminars. I read specific trend magazines and a variety of different design and interiors magazines.” Brechje Vissers, ex-Senior Trend Consultant, Philips (Netherlands)

“One of the first things I do every morning is spend half an hour going through blogs and news articles. It’s a habit that I’ve got into just to see what the latest thinking is, what the analysis on different markets is, what people think are the emerging trends, what the shifts and the predictions are. ” Mark Broughton, Research Insights & Knowledge Manager, Global Product Development, Alliance Boots

“You can learn a lot from the people within your company. It’s almost like having your own internal scout network. We’ve set up a monthly forum in which we offer people from across a range of departments the opportunity to talk about the trends they’ve found. The sort of thing they might have just talked about casually over a coffee before, we now give them the chance to actually present.” Hanna Chalmers, Head of Research & Insight, Universal Music Group

“At a global level, we’ll look at what the individual [offices] around the world are identifying as their growth opportunities or threats ... One of the advantages of a decentralised company is that you get to have eyes and ears throughout the world that are motivated to keep tabs on what’s keeping their local customers happy, what the competition’s doing and so on. It’s almost like our own little internet or scout network.” Tom Pickles, Senior Director, Global Menu Solutions, McDonalds (USA)

“I’m always interfering with people when they’re shopping. It’s really easy. You just say something like ‘I’ve never tried that brand: what’s it like?’ or ‘Have you ever tried this brand, and how does it compare?” Sheila Byfield, Leader, Business Planning, Mindshare

“I subscribe to a lot of different websites. From cool hunting websites through to some of the trend websites. And I always read the newspapers and watch the news. And I search around people’s blogs. If I come across an emerging trend then I’ll read whatever’s been written on that. I’ll just have my eyes open whenever I’m going out. And I’ll listen to other people’s conversations as well. It’s all about testing the temperature of consumer attitudes.”” Camilla Vickerage, ex-Research Manager ICI Paints

“Even just sitting down in the Arndale Shopping Centre and watching how people are dressed or how they’re walking can provide insights.” Wayne Garvie, Director of Production & Content, BBC

[The quotes above are just a small selection of the many hints and tips offered in 'The Next Big Thing: Spotting & Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit']

How not to be fooled by statistics

There are several ways to test the veracity of any poll, whether you find it on a government website, in a company press release or in the pages of a daily newspaper.

Firstly, you should verify the size of the sample a poll is based upon. The larger the sample questioned, the more credibility can be placed on the findings. I spoke to someone recently from a health-related shoe company, who admitted the efficacy of their product is based on a sample of just 10 people. Clearly data based on a sample this small will be of little use and should be discarded. Marketers must also be careful of claims based on small percentages. A one hundred per cent increase in the number of people doing something sounds impressive. But that might simply mean that instead of 2% of a group behaving in one way, now 4% are doing so.

The same holds true for smaller samples within a large sample. Imagine a group of consumers that use products W, X, Y and Z. The figures may show that more people like W than X. But if 90% of people only use Y or Z, then the sample of those who actually use W or X is in itself too small to take meaningful data from.

Where possible, recruitment criteria should be checked too. The sample should be representative of the market being tested and not biased towards a particular typology or attribute.

The wording of questions or multiple-choice answers in a poll should also be studied. Sometimes researchers can ‘load’ a question so as to obtain a more favourable result.

The way that researchers word their results when writing a report can also be manipulated. Words like ‘only’ or ‘as many as’ can be inserted into reports to make the reader think that the figure is either surprisingly low or surprisingly high. Forecasters should always mentally remove such phrases and then re-phrase the figures quoted. If a report states that ‘as many as 25% of people do X’ that might seem impressive, until one removes the first three words and reverses the figure. At that point you realise that three quarters of those polled do not do X.

Be careful too of comparisons between two data in a times series. Always try to obtain all of the available data. Comparing figures from, say, 2007 and 2003 might suggest a major shift in a particular behaviour. But the researchers may have chosen those two particular years to compare simply because they were the most extreme, or most favourable to their brand.

How to get free research data

Not all statistical data needs to cost money. A careful search can provide a great deal of free information. Good trend marketers have a lot in common with good investigative reporters. A lot can be learned from their techniques. Like a journalist, a trend marketer needs to keep a bank of key sources. Some of these will provide universal information. Others will be sector or market-specific. Data can also be found by searching online or in a library. This will be easier for some topics than others. The earlier you pick up on a trend, or the more obscure the topic, the less information there will be available. The advent of search engines such as Google has proved hugely beneficial to those looking for free data.

Government polls can be a useful source of data. Commissioned by individual government departments, they are typically available free. Adding your name to departmental mailing lists will provide regular press releases that detail any research that has been conducted and the most relevant statistics from it. Commercial companies often run polls, the top line results of which they are willing to share. Magazines also often conduct polls of their readers, and these can sometimes offer useful insights, especially among younger audiences. For instance, youth magazine reader surveys in the early 2000s provided me with early clues as to the changing social attitudes of teenagers.

Data about the sales of individual products and services can be obtained from a company’s annual report. And data on new products can be obtained from company press releases. You can obtain these by searching for them online, by signing up to company or PR mailing lists or by looking at the Press, Media or Investor Relations section of a company’s website. Most research companies offer some of their research for free. If you search their websites, you will often find a separate section that provides gratis data. This will typically be older data, and may be located in an archive section. If there is no such section, you can obtain some data by reading the press releases that can be found in the Press section.

The Three I's of Trend Marketing (Extract from 'The Next Big Thing')

“There’s no point knowing what the trends are if you’re not sure how to apply them to your business. Interpretation and implementation are perhaps even more important than identification.” Amanda Meers, Group Account Director, Jigsaw Strategic Research (Australia)

“There is so much trend information out there, but it’s not always clear what to do with its. People want help to pick out the parts that are most relevant to them, to aid them in product development or their marketing.” Alison Hughes, UK Agent, Carlin International

So what exactly is trend marketing? It is more than simply spotting trends. That is just the start of the process. The identification of trends is a useful initial step, but on its own it is not enough. The reason to identify consumer trends is to improve marketing performance. My belief, based upon years of helping brands exploit trends for profit, is that the most effective way to do this is by including a strong generic and operational analysis element within the process. This is backed up by the experiences of many corporate trend experts. To do this I employ a three-stage process using the Three I’s. These are identification, interpretation and implementation.

Identification

Identification is the process of observing change and spotting trends. It is a necessary first step in the Trend Marketing process. It can be conducted using a wide variety of different methods. Primary observation, the study of consumer change at first hand, can be done informally by spending time observing or interrogating consumers in the field. This can involve distance observation, immersion, ethnography, depth interviews, vox pops and photography. Formal observation techniques bring a greater rigour and systematisation to the process. They include the use of focus groups, listening posts and street polling. Secondary research, the study of other people’s research data, can be obtained by scanning available polling data or media outlets. Each Trend Marketer will use a different combination of these methods to obtain their data.

Interpretation

Once a trend has been identified, the next step is to analyse or judge it, in order to predict how it will develop. This is becoming an increasingly important part of the process. If you have spotted a trend but not analysed it, you might perhaps be able to use that information in the creative execution or delivery platform of a very short term marketing campaign. But you will not be able to use the trend strategically or for a wider market, unless you can also predict how big it will become, whom it will affect, and the ways in which it is likely to evolve. A drinks manufacturer might hear of a trend for greater whisky consumption among young cutting edge males. But they will need to analyse such data first, before they can confidently use it to inform marketing or NPD. For instance, is it just a fad that will remain siloed among the cutting edge or will it cross over into the mainstream? Is it just about whisky or might it encompass all brown drinks? Will it affect consumption rates among older or female consumers too?

Effective trend interpretation is a systematic process. It is based around causal analysis: analysing why the trend happened and how it will develop. Although an experienced forecaster can utilise ‘gut feel’ in the interpretation of a trend, it is essential to employ a strong element of rigour. Trend interpretation requires some understanding of marketing theory and the social sciences. To predict trend developments, a forecaster needs to map any trend they identify against a series of social criteria in order to understand the strength, longevity and potential influence of the trend. These criteria include trend attributes; traditional consumer needs; and environmental factors, divided into the 4 Cs: constants, cycles, calculables and chaotics.

The interpretation of a trend takes place only after it has been observed. But it does not mark the end of the observation process. A trend should continue to be monitored once interpretation has established that it is likely to develop. The longer it is monitored, the more evidence that can be obtained, and the more certainty there can be about the potential impact of the trend in the marketplace.

Implementation

The final step is ultimately the most vital, yet it is too often overlooked. Identifying and analysing trends is important. But the ultimate purpose of trend marketing is to help companies decide on their most effective strategies for the future. The final implementation stage deals with impact analysis: the effects that the trend might have upon an individual sector or business. In this phase, forecasters take an identified and interpreted trend and find ways to build it advantageously into company strategy. To do this, they have to establish which trends are most relevant to their particular situation, and then determine how they can exploit them most effectively.

Imagine if a sportswear manufacturer identified the trend for Natural Fitness, in which consumers are moving away from gyms and organised sports to ‘natural’ fitness regimes such as running and cycling. First it would analyse it to determine general implications. Will it encourage a spectator interest as well as a participatory one in sports such as cycling or running at the expense of football or basketball? If so, will this be limited to older consumers? Moving to the implementation stage, it will try to determine what effect the trend might have on its industry and its brands. Will it reduce or diversify sportswear purchase? It then needs to understand how it might exploit the trend. Should it continue to focus on football and basketball clothing but limit itself to the younger market? Or should it expand into cycling and running gear?

[This is an extract from 'The Next Big Thing: Spotting & Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit' (Kogan Page, September 2009).]

Background

Founder William Higham is one of Britain’s leading consumer trend authorities: an acknowledged expert in interpreting research and skilled predictor of consumer change

His expertise comes from 20 years’ consumer experience. He spearheaded press and marketing strategies at Sony, Virgin and Universal in 1990s. After consulting for media and fashion brands, his passion for cultural and consumer trends led him to launch Next Big Thing in 2002.

He has written the first practical guide to trendforecasting ‘The Next Big Thing’ (Kogan Page, 2009)

Media Profile

Founder William Higham is regularly first port of call for Media outlets on all aspects of consumer change: from Tweens to Greys, leisure pursuits to attitudes to health.

Media credits range from The Times and The Economist to The News Of The World, Campaign to Waitrose Food Illustrated, Radio 4’s Todayand PM shows to Radio 5 Live, Eve to The Independent - and Cosmopolitan to Penthouse

He is also a popular speaker at both public and internal conferences.

Email William for any media or speaking enquiries

Client list

Absolute Radio, Aga, AOL, Archant, BBC, BskyB, Budweiser, The Children’s Mutual, Dennis Publishing, Diageo, Friends Provident, Hachette, Heart FM, HSBC, News International, Nielsen, RBS/Nat West, SAB Miller, Siemens, Standard Life, Tate & Lyle, UKTV, Universal Music, Virgin Megastores.

Arc, BBH, Brave PR, Carat, Euro RSCG KLP, Grey, Mediacom, Mediaedge CIA, Mindshare, Ogilvy, OMD, RKCR Y&R, Weiden + Kennedy.

“Their research has contributed to many successful marketing campaigns.” Brian Berg, Managing Director (TV), Universal Music

“They cut through the hype to reveal what is really going on out there.” Jo Rigby, Head of Insight, OMD International

Why use trend forecasting?

We live in an era of social, technological and economic change. Behavioural shifts make a huge financial impact on sales, marketing and creative departments. Innovation is key. Survival increasingly rests on the whim of the consumer.

To identify what will or won’t work in tomorrow’s marketplace, brands must get under the skin of their customers. They mustcomprehend the ‘why’ as well as the ‘how’ of change, to successfully predict future demands and behaviours.

Email us for more details

Key Trends for 2010+

Local Heroes, Natural Fitness, Life On Demand, Spirit of the Blitz, Girls With Gadgets, Back to Big Hair, Shelf Death, Germ Warfare, Silver Surfers Get Social, Poverty Chasm, Traditonalising, Return To Romance, Skimp to Spend, Conservateens, Walking Web, Small Is Beautiful, Brand Aid, Kiss Me Quick, Micro-sourcing, Accesso-rising, Table Tycoons, New Old, Soft Technology.

Flexible Pricing, Sleep Cures, Festival Frenzy, Going To Extremes, Built to Last, Apocalypse Chic, Come Together, Online Offline, Flip Flop Generation, Brand On The Run, Boundary Blurring, Guerrilla Gardening, Service Society, Moving Households, Out Of Sight, The Punk Pound, Wising Up, Bonding, Gender Blending, Art Attack, Post Rave Parents

Email us for more details

Welcome to the blog for new book

The Next Big Thing
Spotting & Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit

The Next Big Thing is both

1. A new book on how to forecast trends for profit
I regularly post extracts and tips from the book on the blog here.
The book is available via Amazon or publishers Kogan Page

and

2. A consumer research & trend analysis consultancy
For more information, visit our website, email us via info@next-big-thing.net or phone 0870 850 5780